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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd