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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."