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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.